ETFs that profit from low oil

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Originally published in USA Today

By Sanjoy Ghosh

“Oil, that is … Black gold … Texas tea.”

— Theme from the Beverly Hillbillies

Ol’ Jed Clampett would be a-hurtin’ these days, with oil prices tumbling, denting millionaire dreams in some of America’s petroleum patches and knocking economies around the world out of whack.

Falling oil prices – about $54 a barrel, the lowest since 2009 – are expected to continue in 2015. A supply gusher – thanks to North American shale and OPEC’s open spigot – coupled with slow global growth could push prices to $40 a barrel.

But cheap oil is a huge boon for consumers and many businesses; it will also likely dominate equity market dynamics here and abroad in 2015.

Specifically, investors should look at the transportation and consumer goods sectors. Contrarians might want to examine investments in oil infrastructure.

Here are three low oil-plays plays using exchange-traded funds:

  • Transportation:Airlines, automobiles, auto parts, trucking and shipping benefit from low oil prices. Consider the iShares Transportation Average ETF (symbol: IYT) and the SPDR S&P Transportation ETF (XTN). Caveats: Falling oil prices could cut demand for rail shipments; IYT has about 29% of its funds in “road and rail;” XTN about 15% as of Dec. 17. Both ETFs have also had large gains in 2014.
  • Consumer Spending: The average household could save $550 in 2015 on gasoline. That’s extra spending money for many people, and companies that sell consumer goods, particularly discretionary items, could benefit. Investors should consider the PowerShares DWA Consumer Cyclicals Momentum Portfolio ETF (PEZ), which counts specialty retail, textiles, apparel and luxury goods as its top sectors. It also includes airlines with about 12% of its holdings, as of Dec. 17.
  • Oil infrastructure:Investors should keep in mind that a lot of the money may already have been made in transportation and consumer spending stocks benefiting from falling oil prices. Contrarians should consider energy infrastructure ETFs that capture returns from master limited partnershipsThese have dropped in recent monthsbut because they invest in pipelines and infrastructure under a ‘toll road’ business model, they aren’t as exposed to commodity prices as other energy stocks. According to Dan Plettner, a portfolio manager who runs the MLP Direct Ownershipportfolio on Covestor.com, MLPs have suffered indiscriminately. Among ETFs, the ALPS Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) is the most liquid way to put such a trade into action, he says.

Sanjoy Ghosh is Chief Investment Officer at Covestor (Covestor.com), an online investing marketplace.