Originally published in USA Today

By Sanjoy Ghosh 

Most Americans spent the last few days either fighting late-night crowds at the mall, or shaking their heads at those who were fighting late-night crowds at the mall.

Whichever camp you’re in, you probably caught a glimpse of a pivotal indicator of the economy: consumer confidence. Consumer confidence in October hit highs unseen since the summer of 2007, before pulling back a bit in November. So no one is really sure how much consumers will spend during the holiday season, even if most Americans are breathing easier thanks to rebounding employment, cheaper gas and a stock market recovery.

One winner in the Black Friday/Cyber Monday rush may be the shopper with his cheap new doorbuster-sale electronics. But it’s the retailers themselves that stand to benefit the most if consumers are, in fact, spending again. When elevated confidence meets seasonal discounting, sales can explode.

If you saw strong indications this past weekend that consumer sentiment is riding high and want to bet on the American consumer, you could consider buying one of a few exchange-traded funds that focus on the consumer segment.

Three ETFs are cited by Charles Sizemore, chief investment officer of Sizemore Capital Investments, but he points to the need to examine the underlying holdings of each.

For instance, there’s the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (ticker: XLP), which gives you access to Procter & Gamble (PG), Coca Cola (KO), Colgate-Palmolive (CL) and other stocks that typically are not very sensitive to swings in consumer sentiment. This is clearly not the most direct way to play a retail-driven consumer rebound, Sizemore says.

You might look at the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY), which does give you access to retailers such as Amazon (AMZN) and Nike (NKE). But this ETF is market capitalization weighted, meaning that the top holdings can be skewed towards large companies such as Comcast (CMCSA). Frankly, things have to be pretty bad for most consumers to shut down their cable. And when they have extra money, it doesn’t necessarily mean they run out and buy more channels.

A more direct way to get exposure if you think the consumer is strong, is through the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), designed to more or less mirror the S&P Retail Select Industry index. This ETF gives investors a taste of several different pieces of the retail chain. It’s an equal-weighted ETF, which means you get as much access to the smaller stocks in the mix as the bigger names. It includes, for instance, American Eagle (AEO) and Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance (ULTA).

You also need to be aware of price. Retail-focused ETFs have already done well in expectation of a strong holiday shopping season, attracting $360 million of investor dollars since early October, according to financial data provider Markit. Retail had lagged the rest of the market all year, but high expectations have closed the gap. This is a trend if you believe that demand is actually surprisingly strong, as you may not be finding a doorbuster deal when buying a retail ETF right now.

Sanjoy Ghosh is Chief Investment Officer at Covestor (Covestor.com), an online investing marketplace.